The European Union’s fragile economy, exacerbated by Greece and Italy, is impacting the U.S. recovery, said Marcus & Millichap’s research services managing director Hassam Nadji. The EU is the world’s largest economic region with $16 trillion in total output, accounting for about 18% of U.S. exports. Exports have been a U.S. bright spot, growing by 7% to 8% a year, and accounting for 13% of total domestic economic output. With a weakened housing market, exports play a more critical role than usual. A European recession would dent U.S. export numbers and weaken an already brittle economy. Psychologically, many multi-national firms have been holding back on expansion and hiring plans partly due to uncertainty in Europe. But, the odds of a severe U.S. recession continue to recede. Now, the most probable economic scenario through 2012 is a painfully gradual recovery with annual job growth of 1.2% to 1.5%.Marcus & Millichap: Global Fears Slow U.S. Recovery
The European Union’s fragile economy, exacerbated by Greece and Italy, is impacting the U.S. recovery, said Marcus & Millichap’s research services managing director Hassam Nadji. The EU is the world’s largest economic region with $16 trillion in total output, accounting for about 18% of U.S. exports. Exports have been a U.S. bright spot, growing by 7% to 8% a year, and accounting for 13% of total domestic economic output. With a weakened housing market, exports play a more critical role than usual. A European recession would dent U.S. export numbers and weaken an already brittle economy. Psychologically, many multi-national firms have been holding back on expansion and hiring plans partly due to uncertainty in Europe. But, the odds of a severe U.S. recession continue to recede. Now, the most probable economic scenario through 2012 is a painfully gradual recovery with annual job growth of 1.2% to 1.5%.
